•Escalating Tensions Between President Kiir and Vice President Machar Raise Fears of Renewed Conflict
South Sudan’s already fragile peace agreement is under increasing strain as political and military tensions escalate between factions loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar.
The recent arrests of high-profile officials, including Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam and Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, have deepened concerns about the stability of the 2018 peace accord, which ended years of civil war.
High-Profile Arrests Spark Alarm
The crisis intensified this week as South Sudanese security forces surrounded the residence of Vice President Riek Machar in the capital, Juba.
Shortly before that, General Gabriel Duop Lam, a senior military figure aligned with Machar, was arrested on Tuesday over allegations of supporting rebel forces in the restive Upper Nile state.
The following day, Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol was also detained, along with his family and bodyguards, by the country’s National Security Service.
These arrests have provoked alarm within opposition circles and among international observers, as they could signal a dangerous unraveling of the delicate power-sharing arrangement that has kept the country from plunging back into full-scale war.
The Fragile 2018 Peace Agreement at Risk
The 2018 peace deal, brokered after five years of devastating civil war that claimed over 400,000 lives, established a unity government under which Kiir remained president and Machar was reinstated as vice president.
However, the agreement remains only partially implemented, with elections originally scheduled for 2023 being postponed until 2025 due to financial constraints and unresolved political disputes.
Machar’s spokesperson, Pal Mai Deng, has warned that the recent arrests could jeopardize the peace accord, arguing that such actions undermine trust and could provoke further instability.
Activists and civil society groups have also called for the immediate release of the detained officials, fearing that their continued imprisonment could spark fresh violence.
Ethnic and Military Tensions in Upper Nile State
The ongoing tensions appear to be linked to renewed unrest in Upper Nile state, where South Sudanese government forces have accused Lam and his allies of colluding with rebel fighters.
The so-called White Army, a loosely organized militia composed largely of ethnic Nuer fighters, has been active in the region, fueling speculation that Machar’s supporters may be engaging in military activities against government troops.
The United Nations has reported a surge in violence in the area, with clashes resulting in civilian casualties and the displacement of thousands.
The deteriorating security situation, coupled with the latest political arrests, has raised fears that the country may slide back into conflict, despite years of efforts to maintain a fragile peace.
International Concerns and Calls for De-escalation
The latest developments in South Sudan have drawn concern from international actors, including the United Nations, the African Union, and regional mediators.
There are growing calls for dialogue and de-escalation to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
Observers warn that the arrests of high-ranking opposition figures could trigger a broader political and military crisis, especially in a nation where ethnic divisions and unresolved grievances have fueled cycles of violence for over a decade.
As South Sudan struggles with economic challenges, delayed elections, and persistent security threats, the recent wave of arrests underscores the fragility of its peace process.
Whether the country can navigate this crisis without descending into renewed war remains uncertain, but without meaningful political engagement and de-escalation, the risks of conflict appear to be growing by the day.
Share This Post