Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape remains tense as President Umaro Sissoco Embalo formally declared his candidacy for a second term in the upcoming November elections.
His announcement comes against the backdrop of an escalating constitutional dispute with the opposition, which claims his first term has already expired.
Embalo’s firm grip on power and his contentious dissolution of parliament in late 2023 have fueled political uncertainty, drawing regional and international attention.
A Presidency in Dispute
Embalo, who first assumed office in 2019 following a contested election, faces opposition claims that his mandate ended in February 2024.
His initial victory was marred by legal battles, with Guinea-Bissau’s Supreme Court only confirming his presidency in September 2020.
The opposition argues that his five-year term should have been counted from his initial election rather than the court’s ruling, rendering his continued rule illegitimate.
Despite these objections, Embalo has set the next presidential election for November 30, 2025, and insists he will remain in office until then.
His refusal to step down has provoked threats of mass protests and strikes, adding to the already fragile political environment.
ECOWAS Mediation and Regional Tensions
In an attempt to mediate the crisis, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) dispatched a delegation to Bissau.
However, reports suggest that Embalo, rather than welcoming their intervention, threatened to expel the delegation.
ECOWAS has been a key player in stabilizing Guinea-Bissau, a country that has witnessed chronic political instability and multiple coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974.
Embalo’s strained relationship with regional mediators raises concerns about Guinea-Bissau’s commitment to democratic norms.
His administration has already faced two coup attempts in the past three years, including a dramatic December 2023 armed clash between the national and presidential guards, reflecting deep fractures within the security establishment.
International Alliances and Strategic Shifts
Amid the ongoing domestic crisis, Embalo recently returned from a diplomatic tour of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Hungary, signaling a shift in Guinea-Bissau’s international partnerships.
In Moscow, he held discussions with President Vladimir Putin, exploring potential security and economic agreements.
This aligns with a broader trend of African leaders engaging with Russia, which has been expanding its influence on the continent at the expense of traditional Western partners such as France and the United States.
The nature of Embalo’s talks with Putin remains undisclosed, but Russia has been actively forging military and economic ties with several African nations, offering an alternative to Western-backed security arrangements.
For Guinea-Bissau, a country with a history of drug trafficking networks and weak state institutions, foreign security assistance could play a crucial role in shaping the country’s future political trajectory.
The Road to November: Uncertain Future
As Guinea-Bissau heads toward the November 30 elections, the country faces a precarious political climate. Embalo’s determination to stay in power, combined with opposition resistance, sets the stage for potential unrest.
The coming months will test the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions and the effectiveness of regional diplomacy.
The opposition remains steadfast in challenging Embalo’s legitimacy, and the possibility of mass protests or civil unrest looms large.
ECOWAS’s next steps will be critical in determining whether Guinea-Bissau can avoid deeper political turmoil or if the country is heading toward another cycle of instability.
With tensions running high, all eyes are on Bissau, where the outcome of this political standoff will have lasting implications for Guinea-Bissau’s democratic future.
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