Nairobi, Kenya| In the ever-turbulent landscape of Isiolo County politics, Senator Fatuma Dullo‘s carefully laid plans for a 2027 gubernatorial bid appear to be unraveling at an alarming pace.
What was once envisioned as a strategic masterstroke – sidelining potential rivals through high-profile national appointments – has collapsed under the weight of President William Ruto’s unyielding support for incumbent Governor Abdi Ibrahim Hassan(Guyo), exposing the senator’s diminishing influence in both local strongholds and the corridors of State House.
Sources close to the unfolding drama reveal that Dullo, a seasoned politician and one of Kenya’s pioneering female senators from pastoralist communities, had actively lobbied to neutralize a key threat: former Isiolo South Member of Parliament and two-time gubernatorial aspirant Abdul Bahari Ali Haji (commonly known as Mefereji).
Ali, a prominent figure from the influential Karayu clan, had temporarily halted his political activities after being shortlisted for a coveted position at the Salaries and Remuneration Commission (SRC).
Insiders claim Dullo assured him of the slot, viewing it as a convenient way to remove him from the county’s competitive arena while she positioned herself for the governor’s race, potentially pairing with former Isiolo County Assembly speaker Mohamed Roba Qoto(MRQ) as her running mate.
However, this calculated maneuver has backfired spectacularly. Recent intelligence briefs presented to President Ruto reportedly underscored Governor Guyo’s ironclad grip on Isiolo’s political terrain.
Despite facing a high-stakes impeachment attempt earlier in 2025 – triggered by allegations including sexist remarks against Dullo herself and financial mismanagement – Guyo emerged stronger, surviving a Senate vote in July and consolidating power through cabinet reshuffles and reconciliatory gestures.
The president was informed that Guyo enjoys broad, cross-clan support, commands the numerical advantage across wards, and is seen as the northern Kenya leader best positioned to deliver a landslide victory for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in Isiolo, mirroring his sweeping 2022 triumph that delivered the entire county ticket to the ruling party.
With this reality firmly in mind, Dullo’s advocacy for AbdulBari Ali’s SRC appointment hit an insurmountable barrier.
The position ultimately went to Engineer Michael Thoyah Kingi, brother of Senate Speaker Amason Jevanjee Kingi, in a gazette notice issued on November 14, 2025. This development not only left Ali empty-handed but also laid bare the erosion of Dullo’s clout at the national level, where alliances once thought secure now appear fragile.
Restless and undeterred, AbdulBari Ali is reportedly gearing up for a forceful re-entry into the fray. His Karayu clan – a dominant force in Isiolo’s Borana-dominated politics – remains deeply divided.
A powerful faction is rallying behind Nuh Mohamed Ibrahim, the CEO of the Sports Fund and a former senatorial contender who narrowly lost to Dullo in 2022.
Proponents argue that Nuh’s financial resources make him ideally suited to bankroll the exorbitant demands of a gubernatorial campaign.
Both Ali and Nuh are said to be in a race against time to formally declare their candidatures, aiming to capitalize on the fluid, undecided sentiment currently permeating the county’s electorate ahead of the 2027 polls.
Whispers from Dullo’s inner circle suggest desperation is setting in. In a last-ditch effort to delay Ali’s resurgence, the senator is allegedly dangling a Deputy Head of Mission posting at Kenya’s embassy in Israel – portrayed as a “soft landing” to sidetrack him indefinitely and irreparably damage his local political viability.
Yet, following the SRC disappointment, this olive branch rings hollow to many observers, unlikely to sway a determined rival.
Lacking a solid, independent community base and watching her alliances crumble, Dullo may soon face the unpalatable prospect of retreating to a senatorial re-election bid – a demotion that would signal a profound decline in her once-formidable leverage.
Compounding these woes is the rising prominence of figures like Mohamed Tubi Bidu Jr. (often referred to in political circles as “Tupi Junior”), son of the late Isiolo South MP Mohamed Tubi Bidu, who passed away on November 12, 2025.
Elders from senior Borana subclans and allied groups have vehemently insisted that the Karayu-dominated bloc will fiercely defend the Isiolo South parliamentary seat in 2027, with Tubi Jr. emerging as a consensus choice for the impending by-election.
They have issued stern warnings to Mohamed Roba – a potential aspirant linked to senatorial or higher ambitions – to pivot toward the gubernatorial race or risk having his plans “crushed” outright.
As Kenya hurtles toward the 2027 General Election, Isiolo County’s political chessboard is undergoing a seismic realignment driven by clan dynamics, presidential patronage, and raw electoral arithmetic.
Governor Guyo’s resilience – from surviving impeachment amid bitter feuds with Dullo to securing Ruto’s backing – positions him as the undisputed frontrunner.
For Senator Fatuma Dullo, once a trailblazing force in northern Kenya politics, the horizon looks increasingly bleak: strategies in tatters, alliances fracturing, and influence ebbing away in a county where adaptability and ground-level command are the ultimate currencies of power.
This shifting terrain underscores the high-stakes nature of Kenyan devolved politics, where national appointments, clan endorsements, and State House favor can make or break ambitions.
As aspirants jockey for position, residents of Isiolo watch closely, hopeful that the intrigue yields leaders focused on development rather than division.
Additional reporting from Abu Ameer
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