In a dramatic and highly contested election, Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has been elected as the new Chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).
Youssouf emerged victorious after seven intense rounds of voting, ultimately defeating Kenya’s Raila Odinga and Madagascar’s Foreign Affairs Minister Richard Randriamandarto.
Youssouf secured his win after Odinga, Kenya’s former Prime Minister, withdrew from the race in the sixth round, leaving him unopposed in the final stage of voting.
His victory marks a significant shift in African Union leadership, with political ramifications likely to unfold across the continent.
Who is Mahmoud Ali Youssouf?
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf is a seasoned diplomat who has served as Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation since 2005.
His tenure has been marked by strategic diplomatic engagements, particularly in enhancing regional security.
In 2023, he was awarded a European Union honor for his contributions in combating piracy off the coast of Somalia.
Youssouf is fluent in five languages—French, English, Arabic, Afar, and Somali—making him well-positioned for the diverse diplomatic responsibilities that come with his new role.
A Major Setback for Raila Odinga and Kenya’s Government
Youssouf’s victory is being interpreted as a political blow to Raila Odinga and, by extension, the Kenyan government under President William Ruto.
Odinga, a seasoned opposition leader in Kenya, was President Ruto’s preferred candidate for the AUC position.
Ruto actively lobbied across the continent, rallying support for Odinga’s bid, making the loss a significant disappointment for Nairobi’s diplomatic ambitions.
Political analysts suggest that Odinga’s defeat could reshape Kenya’s political landscape. His close ties with Ruto during the campaign had already sparked controversy back home.
Many of Odinga’s supporters viewed his softened stance toward the government as a sign of political compromise, particularly after some of his party members were appointed to key cabinet positions.
Following the loss, some Kenyans took to the streets celebrating and sarcastically urging Odinga to “come back and build the country.”
Others, particularly in his stronghold of Kisumu’s Kondele area, erupted in anti-government protests, chanting “Ruto Must Go!” and encouraging Odinga to prepare for another presidential bid in 2027.
Raila and Ruto’s Political Future: Coalition or Rivalry?
Despite the setback, Odinga appeared unfazed. In an unprecedented move, he was seen alongside President Ruto as they left the election venue in the same vehicle.
This public display of unity has fueled speculation that the two leaders could continue working together, potentially even forming a coalition ahead of Kenya’s 2027 general elections.
Odinga has unsuccessfully contested the Kenyan presidency five times (1997, 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022) and has never outrightly conceded defeat—making his acceptance of Youssouf’s victory all the more notable.
Geopolitical Undercurrents: Did the DRC Crisis Influence the Outcome?
Observers believe several factors contributed to Odinga’s loss. One key issue is the ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where tensions have been rising.
Reports suggest that DRC President Félix Tshisekedi was displeased with President Ruto’s diplomatic overtures to French President Emmanuel Macron without prior consultation.
This diplomatic friction may have cost Odinga crucial votes from key member states.
What’s Next for Africa and Kenya?
Youssouf now takes the helm of the African Union Commission at a critical time, with the continent grappling with security threats, economic challenges, and diplomatic tensions.
How he navigates Africa’s pressing issues, including regional conflicts, economic integration, and relations with global powers, remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, in Kenya, political realignments are inevitable. With Odinga out of the AU picture, speculation is rife about his next move.
Will he return to opposition politics in full force, or will he strengthen ties with Ruto? Either way, his loss has set the stage for a highly unpredictable political landscape as Kenya gears up for the 2027 elections.
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf’s election as AUC Chairperson is a defining moment for African diplomacy.
While his leadership will shape the future of the AU, the political ripple effects of Odinga’s defeat in Kenya are just beginning.
As the dust settles, all eyes will be on how both Youssouf and Odinga navigate their respective futures—one as Africa’s top diplomat and the other as a veteran politician at a crossroads.
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