•Governor Guyo’s Masterful Gambit: How Endorsing Tubi Jr. Dismantled Opponents in Isiolo’s High-Stakes Political Arena – Nuria Happi’s Incisive Take
In Isiolo County, clan loyalties and political alliances can shift like desert sands. It takes a skilled political hand to maneuver the intricate mosaics of the local communities to win hearts(and minds).
Governor Abdi Ibrahim Hassan(Guyo) has, yet again, demonstrated why he is regarded as one of northern Kenya’s shrewdest tacticians.
As the Isiolo South by-election looms on February 26, 2026, triggered by the untimely death of MP Mohamed Tubi Bidu in November 2025, Guyo’s unexpected endorsement of the late legislator’s son, Tubi Mohamed Tubi, affectionately known as Tubi Junior, has sent shockwaves through the local political landscape.
This move, lauded by prominent Isiolo writer and media firebrand Nuria Happi as a stroke of genius that places the governor “eleven steps ahead” of his adversaries, has not only collapsed the scripts of his rivals but also exposed their reliance on emotional theatrics and strategic myopia.
Happi, a celebrated voice in Isiolo’s media circles, has dissected this maneuver with her characteristic sharp wit and insider insight, framing it as a masterclass in political smartsmanship.
In her recent commentary, widely circulated across social platforms and local forums, she argues that critics anticipated Guyo would field his own proxy candidate, allowing them to paint him as heartless and opportunistic amid the grief-stricken by-election.
Instead, by backing Tubi Junior on the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, Guyo has turned the tables, transforming a potential vulnerability into a resounding triumph that bolsters his bid for a second term in the 2027 general elections.
The Impeachment Shadow: Roots of a Bitter Rivalry
To fully appreciate Guyo’s latest coup, one must rewind to the turbulent events of June 2025, when former Isiolo County Assembly Speaker Mohamed Roba Qoto, now a key political opponent, spearheaded a dramatic impeachment bid against the governor.
On June 26, 2025, a section of Members of the County Assembly (MCAs) voted to oust Guyo, citing charges of gross violation of the Constitution, abuse of office, and misconduct.
The motion, sponsored by MCA Abubakar Abdi Godana, appeared to catch the governor off guard because of his trust in the ‘speaker’, his former ally and protegé, but it quickly unraveled under legal scrutiny.
The High Court in Meru swiftly intervened, declaring the impeachment null and void on procedural grounds and holding the now deposed Speaker Roba and Godana in contempt.
The Senate, tasked with the final adjudication, opted for a plenary hearing but ultimately threw out the bid at an early stage, citing insufficient evidence and procedural flaws.
This failed coup not only humiliated Roba and his allies but also deepened the rift within Isiolo’s political elite, positioning Roba as Guyo’s arch-nemesis.
In the aftermath, Roba was ousted as speaker and replaced by Abdullahi Banticha, while Guyo reshuffled his cabinet to consolidate power.
Critics have accused Guyo of various and mostly unsubstantiated missteps and overreach, most of which have been debunked along the way, anyway, but these claims have done little to dent his stronghold.
Instead, the impeachment saga revealed Roba’s camp as prone to hasty, ill-conceived attacks, a pattern that Happi describes as “a battle already lost” due to their inability to anticipate Guyo’s countermoves.
The By-Election Crucible: A Family Feud with High Stakes
The Isiolo South by-election, occasioned by the death of MP Mohamed Tubi Bidu while undergoing treatment at Nairobi Hospital, has evolved into a microcosm of Isiolo’s intricate ethnic and clan dynamics.
Tubi, a respected figure from the Borana community, left a vacuum that has drawn fierce competition, including a poignant sibling rivalry.
Tubi Junior, cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to run on UDA, faces off against his sister, Bina Tubi, who is contesting on the Jubilee Party ticket.
This family divide underscores the broader political fragmentation in Isiolo South, a constituency marked by its diverse population of Borana and Sakuye residents, where issues like land disputes, water scarcity, and infrastructure development dominate voter concerns.
Other candidates, such as Issack Abduba Fayo from Mike Sonko’s National Economic Development Party (NEDP), add layers of complexity, but the spotlight remains on the Tubi siblings. The by-election’s outcome could reshape alliances ahead of 2027, making it a pivotal test for Guyo’s influence.
Guyo’s Endorsement: A Calculated Strike That Shattered Scripts
Enter Governor Guyo’s bold intervention. Rather than introducing a handpicked loyalist, he rallied elders from all clans to unanimously endorse Tubi Junior, framing it as a gesture of respect for the late MP’s legacy and a unifying force for the community.
This endorsement, announced amid gatherings of Borana clan leaders, youth, and family members, has been a game-changer.
Happi, in her hard-hitting analysis, praises this as exposing the “emotional theatrics” of Roba and his allies, who had banked on portraying Guyo as a ruthless opportunist profiting from tragedy.
By aligning with Tubi Junior, Guyo has neutralized potential backlash and secured crucial support from the Karayu clan within the Borana community, a bloc that Roba desperately needed to bolster his own ambitions.
Since the endorsement, Karayu leaders have openly backed Guyo for re-election, rendering Roba’s plans to derail the governor’s second-term bid futile.
Happi’s commentary cuts deep here, labeling Guyo’s critics as operating with “strategic blindness,” trapped in crude stereotypes while the governor maneuvers “far above and beyond” such labels.
This isn’t mere opportunism; it’s a calculated elevation of community cohesion over personal gain, positioning Guyo as the indispensable leader.
Clan Loyalties and Broader Endorsements: Fortifying Guyo’s Fortress
At the heart of this drama lies the intricate web of clan affiliations in Isiolo, where the Borana community, comprising subgroups like the Karayu, holds significant sway.
Guyo’s endorsement has galvanized these clans, denying Roba the grassroots support from his own kin that he once took for granted.
This shift is emblematic of broader trends in northern Kenyan politics, where pastoralist communities grapple with modernization, climate challenges, and resource conflicts, often turning to leaders who blend tradition with strategic acumen.
Beyond the Karayu, Guyo has amassed endorsements from a mosaic of local communities, including professionals, elders, and even segments of the Meru and Turkana populations, making him the frontrunner for the gubernatorial seat in 2027.
His tenure, marked by initiatives in infrastructure and conflict resolution, such as mediating KDF land disputes, has earned him accolades as a “mentor and leader who makes other leaders.”
Nuria Happi: The Unflinching Chronicler of Isiolo’s Intrigues
No analysis of this saga would be complete without spotlighting Nuria Happi, the Isiolo-born writer whose voice resonates far beyond county borders.
As a top media powerhouse and one of the region’s most influential female analysts, Happi wields her pen with precision, often drawing from personal experiences to craft human-interest stories that unpack the human toll of politics.
Her contributions to The Elephant Journal, focusing on themes of family, resilience, community, and power dynamics, have been widely distributed, earning her accolades and a dedicated following.
Happi’s praise for Guyo isn’t blind allegiance; it’s a candid acknowledgment of tactical brilliance in an arena rife with betrayal and short-sightedness.
By highlighting how Guyo operates “far above” the fray, she challenges readers to reconsider the governor not as a villain but as a visionary, while skewering his foes for their predictable blunders.
In an era where Kenyan devolution has amplified local power struggles, Happi’s insights serve as a beacon, reminding us that true leadership thrives on foresight, not fury.
As Isiolo hurtles toward the by-election and beyond, Governor Guyo’s gambit stands as a testament to enduring political savvy-ness.
With rivals reeling and communities rallying, the man once targeted for impeachment now appears unbreakable, his path to 2027 paved with calculated victories.
Nuria Happi’s verdict rings true: In this game of thrones, Guyo isn’t just playing, he’s redefining the board.
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