Nairobi, Kenya| In a stark alert that underscores the fragility of peace in Kenya’s northern frontier, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has raised the alarm over escalating political intolerance and insecurity in Isiolo County.
The commission warns that the ongoing unrest, triggered by a botched impeachment attempt against Governor Abdi Guyo, could rapidly escalate into a full-scale conflict, potentially spreading to adjacent regions like Meru, Marsabit, Samburu, and beyond.
This development highlights deep-seated issues of ethnic tensions, governance breakdowns, and the misuse of public resources, threatening not only local stability but also Kenya’s broader devolution framework.
The NCIC’s concerns come amid a wave of violent incidents in Isiolo, including arson attacks on county offices, vandalism of the County Assembly chambers, and reports of armed goons disrupting public order.
These events have already claimed lives and eroded public trust, prompting urgent calls for national intervention to prevent a domino effect of instability in the volatile Upper Eastern region.
The Spark: Failed Impeachment and Rising Violence
The crisis in Isiolo intensified following an attempted impeachment of Governor Abdi Ibrahim Guyo earlier this month.
The motion, which accused the governor of corruption, abuse of office, and mismanagement of county funds, failed amid allegations of political sabotage and external interference.
In the aftermath, chaos erupted as supporters and opponents clashed, leading to widespread violence, property destruction, and ethnic incitement.
According to NCIC Chairperson Dr. Samuel Kobia, the failed impeachment has acted as a catalyst for deeper divisions.
“Recent developments, including the failed impeachment of Governor Abdi Guyo, have fueled violence, vandalism, ethnic incitement, and disruption of peace,” Kobia stated in an official release.
“This situation reflects a breakdown of political order that risks eroding governance and public trust.” He likened the unrest to “a crack in the foundation of a house,” warning that it could undermine the entire structure of community harmony and administrative integrity.
Eyewitness accounts and social media reports paint a grim picture. On August 27, unidentified assailants torched the County Secretary’s office – a critical hub for payroll and administrative records – in what many suspect was an attempt to destroy evidence of corruption.
The attack followed the arrest of County Assembly Speaker Mohamed Roba, escalating tensions further. Videos circulating on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) show flames engulfing the building, with residents chanting slogans against perceived impunity.
In one post, Dr. Abdi Issa, Isiolo’s Second Deputy Governor, decried the arson as a deliberate act to erase corruption trails, urging President William Ruto to step in before the county becomes “ungovernable.”
Protests have also gripped the county, with residents decrying poor infrastructure, lack of medicines in hospitals, and politicized security operations.
In recent weeks, at least five lives have been lost to political violence, turning Isiolo – once envisioned as a “resort city” due to its strategic location and natural resources – into a hotspot of fear and disorder.
Alarming Elements: Illegal Firearms, Mercenaries, and Misused Funds
The NCIC’s statement delves into more sinister aspects of the crisis, including reports of illegal firearms circulating in the county, the involvement of external mercenaries, and criminal gangs hired to intimidate opponents.
Even more troubling are allegations that public resources are being diverted to fund politically motivated violence, exacerbating ethnic rifts among Isiolo’s diverse communities, which include Borana, Somali, Turkana, Samburu, and Meru groups.
Isiolo’s history of resource-based conflicts – over water, pasture, and land – has long made it vulnerable to such escalations.
The county borders several arid and semi-arid regions where pastoralist communities compete for scarce resources, often leading to inter-ethnic clashes.
Past assessments, such as those by the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS), have identified root causes like mistrust, ideological differences, and failure to adhere to peace agreements as perennial threats.
The NCIC has previously facilitated peace initiatives in the area, including dialogues along the Isiolo-Meru-Samburu borders, emphasizing alternative livelihoods for youth to deter violence.
Experts warn that the current unrest mirrors patterns seen in post-election violence elsewhere in Kenya, such as the 2007-2008 crisis that displaced hundreds of thousands. “If unchecked, this could spill over into neighboring counties with devastating consequences,” Kobia emphasized, pointing to the potential for cross-border raids and disrupted trade routes.
Broader Implications for Kenya’s Stability
The Isiolo crisis is not isolated; it reflects broader challenges in Kenya’s devolved governance system.
Since the adoption of the 2010 Constitution, counties like Isiolo have grappled with power struggles, corruption scandals, and ethnic politicking.
The failed impeachment echoes similar dramas in other regions, raising questions about the effectiveness of accountability mechanisms.
On a national level, the unrest could undermine President Ruto’s agenda for economic development in northern Kenya, including infrastructure projects like the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia-Transport (LAPSSET) corridor, which passes through Isiolo.
Security lapses here might deter investments and exacerbate poverty, fueling further discontent.
Social media users have amplified these concerns, with posts calling Isiolo a “crime scene” and demanding high-level intervention. One activist noted, “This is bigger than Isiolo. It’s a constitutional crisis, a threat to devolution, and an assault on citizens.”
The NCIC has also highlighted parallels with ongoing banditry and resource conflicts in nearby counties like Baringo and Elgeyo Marakwet, where police actions have sometimes escalated tensions.
A spillover could reignite dormant rivalries, leading to humanitarian crises in an area already strained by climate change and drought.
Calls for Action: Dialogue, Restraint, and Security Overhaul
To avert disaster, Dr. Kobia has urged all stakeholders – leaders, residents, and security forces – to exercise restraint, uphold the rule of law, and reject inflammatory rhetoric. “We call for immediate dialogue among political leaders and community stakeholders to restore calm,” he said.
The commission recommends bolstering security through a coordinated multi-agency operation, involving the National Police Service, Kenya Defence Forces, and local peace committees.
This would focus on safeguarding lives, protecting property, and holding perpetrators accountable, including those inciting violence or misusing funds.
Civil society groups and international partners, such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Interpeace, have echoed these calls, drawing from past successful interventions in the region.
Women-led peace networks, like the Isiolo Indigenous Women 1325 Action Group, have been instrumental in mediating resource disputes and advocating for non-violent resolutions.
Local leaders, including Isiolo County Commissioner, have warned against politicizing security, emphasizing the need for impartial enforcement.
Meanwhile, opposition voices have accused national figures, including Transport Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, of fueling the chaos, though these claims remain unsubstantiated. 16
Looking Ahead: A Path to Sustainable Peace
As Isiolo teeters on the brink, the NCIC’s warning serves as a critical wake-up call for Kenya.
Addressing the root causes – from corruption and ethnic divisions to resource scarcity – requires not just immediate firefighting but long-term strategies like inclusive governance, youth empowerment, and climate-resilient development.
For now, the eyes of the nation are on Isiolo. Will swift action prevent a regional catastrophe, or will inaction allow the flames of unrest to spread? The answer lies in collective responsibility, as Kobia aptly put it: “Peace cannot be achieved through violence; it can only be attained through understanding.”
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