In a significant political development, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has named Bare Maalim Hassan as its flagbearer for the upcoming Banisa Constituency by-election, dealing a substantial blow to the United Democratic Movement (UDM) in Kenya’s vote-rich pastoral North.
This announcement underscores UDA’s growing dominance in the region and highlights the enduring influence of Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale in shaping the political landscape of Kenya’s North Eastern counties.
The decision comes on the heels of a fiercely contested Garissa Township by-election in 2023, where UDA’s Dekow Mohamed Barrow emerged victorious, further cementing the party’s foothold in the region.
A Strategic Victory for UDA in Banisa
The selection of Bare Maalim Hassan as UDA’s candidate for the Banisa by-election signals a calculated move by the ruling party to consolidate its influence in Mandera County, a key stronghold in the pastoral North.
The decision is particularly significant as UDM, led by Mandera Senator Ali Ibrahim Roba, has long positioned itself as a formidable force in the region, championing the interests of pastoralist communities.
However, UDM’s choice to step down in favor of UDA’s nominee in Banisa—a constituency where it has historically wielded influence—marks a strategic retreat and underscores UDA’s political ascendancy.
The Banisa by-election, expected to draw significant attention, is poised to be a litmus test for the political dynamics in the pastoral North, a region characterized by clan-based politics and intense electoral competition.
With UDA’s nomination of Bare Maalim Hassan, a figure likely backed by Duale’s extensive network and influence, the party is signaling its intent to maintain its grip on the region’s electorate, which numbers over two million voters across 15 counties and 66 parliamentary constituencies.
A Rivalry Rooted in the Garissa By-Election
The Banisa by-election comes two years after a high-stakes Garissa Township by-election in January 2023, which pitted UDA against UDM in a battle for regional supremacy. In that contest, UDA’s Dekow Mohamed Barrow, a brother-in-law of CS Aden Duale, secured a decisive victory with 11,572 votes, defeating UDM’s Nassir Dolal Mohamed, who garnered 8,158 votes.
The Garissa by-election was widely seen as a proxy war between Duale, a close ally of President William Ruto, and Senator Ali Roba, a former Mandera governor who has sought to position UDM as the voice of the pastoral North.
Duale’s endorsement of Dekow in the Garissa race, coupled with his mobilization of community elders and professionals from the Abduwak clan, proved instrumental in securing UDA’s victory. Political analysts noted that the win not only solidified UDA’s influence but also highlighted Duale’s ability to navigate the region’s complex clan-based politics, often referred to as “negotiated democracy.”
The Garissa by-election underscored the growing rivalry between Duale and Roba, with the latter’s UDM struggling to counter UDA’s organizational strength and strategic alliances within the Kenya Kwanza coalition.
UDA’s Dominance in the Pastoral North
The pastoral North, encompassing counties such as Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, and Marsabit, is a critical electoral battleground due to its substantial voting population and strategic importance in national politics.
UDA, under the leadership of President William Ruto, has made significant inroads in the region since its rebranding from the Party of Development and Reforms in December 2020.
The party’s wheelbarrow symbol, representing “the value, dignity, and respect of work,” has resonated with voters, particularly among the Kalenjin and pastoralist communities.
In the 2022 general elections, UDA demonstrated its electoral prowess by securing 22 out of 47 Senate seats and 138 National Assembly seats, with notable successes in pastoral counties.
For instance, in Garissa, two of the six constituencies voted for UDA candidates, while in Mandera, UDM clinched four parliamentary seats but faced stiff competition from UDA-backed candidates.
The recent merger of UDA with the Amani National Congress (ANC), announced in January 2025, further strengthened UDA’s position, with ANC’s leadership integrated into UDA’s structure, including Lamu Governor Issa Timamy as a deputy party leader.
Aden Duale’s Political Influence
CS Aden Duale’s role in UDA’s regional dominance cannot be overstated. A seasoned politician and former Garissa Township MP, Duale has leveraged his close alliance with President Ruto and his deep ties to the Abduwak clan to shape electoral outcomes in the pastoral North.
His endorsement of candidates, such as Dekow in Garissa and now Bare Maalim Hassan in Banisa, carries significant weight, often tipping the scales in UDA’s favor.
Duale’s ability to rally clan elders, politicians, and professionals has made him a political kingpin in the region, a status further reinforced by UDM’s decision to cede ground in Banisa.
Duale’s influence extends beyond individual constituencies. As the patron of the Pastoralists Parliamentary Group, formed in 1988 to align pastoral communities’ agendas with national politics, he has played a pivotal role in mobilizing the region’s voters.
His strategic endorsements and mobilization efforts have consistently delivered results for UDA, positioning the party as the dominant force in the pastoral North.
UDM’s Struggle to Maintain Relevance
For UDM, led by Senator Ali Roba, the decision to step aside in Banisa represents a significant setback. Founded in 1999 by politicians including a young William Ruto, UDM has historically positioned itself as a vehicle for pastoralist interests.
Roba, who acquired the party from the late General John Koech, has sought to transform UDM into a national political force, opening offices in Mandera and rallying supporters to ditch rival parties like UDA and ODM.
However, UDM’s inability to sustain its momentum in the face of UDA’s organizational strength and Duale’s political maneuvering has limited its influence.
In the 2022 general elections, UDM initially aligned with Raila Odinga’s Azimio La Umoja coalition but later switched allegiance to Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance, a move that bolstered UDA’s parliamentary majority.
Despite securing key seats in Mandera, including the gubernatorial and senatorial positions, UDM has struggled to compete with UDA’s resources and grassroots mobilization.
The Garissa by-election, where UDM’s Nassir Dolal Mohamed lost to UDA’s Dekow, highlighted the party’s challenges in countering UDA’s dominance, a trend that appears to be continuing in Banisa.
Implications for the Banisa By-Election
The Banisa by-election is set to be a critical test of UDA’s ability to maintain its regional dominance and UDM’s capacity to regain ground in its stronghold.
With Bare Maalim Hassan as UDA’s flagbearer, the party is well-positioned to leverage Duale’s influence and the Kenya Kwanza coalition’s resources to secure a victory.
The by-election will also shed light on the evolving dynamics of clan-based politics in the pastoral North, where endorsements by community elders and strategic alliances play a pivotal role.
Political observers, such as Javas Bigambo, have noted that UDM’s path to relevance requires a broader national appeal, a challenge that Roba must address to counter UDA’s dominance.
“For Ali Roba to make UDM acceptable in his northern backyard, he should aim at nationalizing it so that his supporters know they are positioned to negotiate power on a national stage,” Bigambo stated.
Economic and Political Context
The Banisa by-election unfolds against the backdrop of Kenya’s economic progress under President Ruto’s administration.
Since taking office, Ruto’s government has registered over 253,000 new businesses, driven by initiatives like Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and Export Processing Zones (EPZs).
These policies have bolstered investor confidence and created jobs, particularly in regions like the pastoral North, where economic diversification is a priority.
UDA’s electoral successes in the region are partly attributed to its alignment with these economic achievements, which resonate with voters seeking development and opportunities.
Looking Ahead
The nomination of Bare Maalim Hassan as UDA’s flagbearer for the Banisa Constituency by-election marks another triumph for CS Aden Duale and the ruling party in their quest to dominate the pastoral North.
As UDM grapples with its diminishing influence, UDA’s strategic maneuvering and Duale’s political clout continue to reshape the region’s electoral landscape.
The upcoming by-election will not only determine the next MP for Banisa but also serve as a barometer for the broader political contest between UDA and UDM in Kenya’s pastoral heartland.
With the stakes higher than ever, all eyes will be on Banisa as the battle for the pastoral North’s votes intensifies.
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